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Reuters saw that US President Donald Trump finds himself in a dilemma as he seeks to end the war against Iran. He is under pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower gasoline prices in his country, but at the same time he may face a backlash from anti-Iran hawks within the Republican Party if he makes any concessions to Tehran.
The agency explained that the features of Trump’s dilemma became clear in a week of intense diplomatic efforts, and agency sources spoke of an initial agreement that would extend the current ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz, while postponing discussions on Tehran’s nuclear program.
The agency considered that this temporary agreement, if approved by Trump and Iran, would be the most prominent step toward “calm” since the beginning of the war on February 28, and could mitigate the rise in energy prices resulting from the conflict.
Meanwhile, the agency confirmed that this temporary agreement may dissatisfy a key segment of Trump’s base: influential Republicans calling for “finishing the job” by resuming strikes to “cut the way for Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon,” which is the main reason Trump declared for going to war.
These Republican hardliners criticized the reports they received about the possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran, and said that “what he will achieve will not go beyond what was stated in the 2015 nuclear agreement” (in the days of former President Barack Obama, from which Trump withdrew).
Prominent Republicans who “rarely disagree with Trump,” including Senators Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker and Ted Cruz, urged the president not to concede. But Trump denied this and insisted that he was “in no hurry” and would only accept a “great” agreement, according to Reuters.
“Trump has little room to maneuver.”
Here, the agency stressed that between demanding a quick solution to the problem of high gasoline prices and dealing with the Iranian nuclear program, the US President has only a small margin for maneuver.
Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East affairs expert at Johns Hopkins University, said, “Trump’s volatile speeches and sudden changes in positions over the past week indicate that the president is trying to end a large-scale war in any way.”
In turn, a White House official said, “The negotiations are going well, and the president has made clear his red lines,” adding that Trump “will only conclude an agreement that is good for the American people, which must ensure that Iran will never be able to obtain a nuclear weapon.”
The “Memorandum of Understanding” is far from Trump’s goal in his war on Iran
Reuters touched on media leaks yesterday, Thursday, regarding the terms of the “memorandum of understanding” that is being talked about as being close to being reached between the United States and Iran.
Here, the agency believes that the “memorandum of understanding” includes unanswered questions: the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of Iran’s stock of enriched uranium to a purity approaching that needed to make weapons, and details of the possible easing of sanctions.
The agency confirmed that this framework of understanding, although it prevents military escalation, remains far removed from Trump’s previous demand for “unconditional surrender” and his pledge to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, a non-profit political organization, wrote on the X platform: “If these terms are accurate and if a deal is concluded, it appears that the Islamic Republic will get more than what the United States will receive in the memorandum of understanding… Pledge to further nuclear talks? Be careful.”
In this context, Reuters stressed that by reopening the strait, Trump will only have restored the free flow of maritime navigation that was already available before he launched the war.
Analysts said, “Trump appears to be trying to find a balance between pushing Iran to make concessions on key issues and offering limited concessions that enable him to portray the result as a victory.”
Republicans’ chances in the elections were damaged
Meanwhile, time is running out for the US president, whose popular support rates have reached their lowest levels, according to Reuters.
The midterm elections will be held next November, and Trump’s Republican colleagues are finding it difficult to maintain the party’s control of Congress, and new assessments warn of profound damage to the global economy if the conflict continues.
But at a Cabinet meeting last Wednesday, Trump appeared to respond to his critics by emphasizing his hard-line positions and insisting that he did not care about the midterm elections.
Trump’s aides expressed in private conversations their concern about the damage to Republicans’ chances in the elections due to the rise in gasoline prices in the country.
The events of recent days were not something new for a president who ran his election campaign pledging to “avoid unnecessary wars” only to then drag the United States into war without providing logical reasons for doing so, according to Reuters.
Analysts believed that Iran “has shown its confidence that it has the upper hand after proving its ability to withstand the military attack.”
“The president is showing every indication that he wants to end this quickly, and that is making the Iranians stick to their guns,” said John Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Analysts expected that the way Trump would end the conflict would be a major factor in determining his foreign policy legacy during his second term.
